Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d87…7064 crypto 714 markets active 15h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,548 (-6%) realized −$3,548 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate36%260W / 454L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$63
14 days−$182
30 days−$711
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$4,524
sports 7% −$172
politics 0% +$1
other 0% −$3
tech 0% $0
world 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -21.3% -28.8% 30% 27% -34.8%
≤30d 187 -24.7% -31.9% 30% 26% -36.9%
≤90d 652 -19.7% -27.4% 34% 24% -17.0%
all 714 -17.3% -25.2% 36% 24% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 24% -16.6%
10% -32.4% 18% -24.5%
15% -38.9% 13% -31.8%
20% -44.9% 10% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$23 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,548
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses260 / 454
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions0
Markets (closed)714 / 714
History coverage137d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 714 Trades
no open positions (206 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$5 +452%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $125 −$55 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 08 $17 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $9 +$11 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $125 −$51 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 08 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 08 $40 +$5 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$3 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2108 history records