Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:20:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2D 0x2d88…d5e8 crypto 411 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6,957 (-0%) realized −$6,950 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%390W / 22L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$3,781per market
Trades / day32.8pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$24,875now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$8,035
other 10% +$2,524
world 3% −$6,438
finance 0% +$912
politics 0% +$4,932
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -30.4% -37.0% 67% 2% -9.5%
≤30d 140 -8.8% -17.5% 89% 1% -9.0%
≤90d 402 -2.1% -11.4% 95% 2% -9.6%
all 412 -1.4% -10.8% 95% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 2% -8.9%
10% -19.3% 2% -17.7%
15% ← realistic here -27.1% 2% -25.6%
20% -34.3% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$5,438) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$904 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$24,875
Realized−$6,950
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses390 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions21
Markets (closed)412 / 411
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$3,781
Trades / day32.8
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 412 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 86¢ $4,598 $4,807 +$210 (+5%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 92¢ 100¢ $3,704 $4,014 +$310 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $3,594 $3,593 −$2 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,759 $1,758 −$1 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 98¢ $1,456 $1,570 +$114 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 58¢ $1,556 $1,307 −$249 (-16%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 87¢ 97¢ $1,138 $1,262 +$125 (+11%)
Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 86¢ $1,071 $1,194 +$123 (+12%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,041 $1,060 +$19 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $852 $873 +$22 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 92¢ $774 $824 +$50 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 72¢ $475 $518 +$43 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 81¢ $510 $489 −$21 (-4%)
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 22? Down 98¢ 50¢ $745 $382 −$363 (-49%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 81¢ 53¢ $467 $307 −$160 (-34%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $272 $273 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 32¢ $430 $220 −$209 (-49%)
Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 82¢ $224 $205 −$19 (-8%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $132 $132 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $83 $85 +$2 (+2%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 84¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 14? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 20? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 31? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 20? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on February 26? Jun 22 $9 −$983 -11381%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 26? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 31? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 4? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Jun 22 $3 −$178 -6238%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 7? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 3? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 24? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,597 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $20,373 +$27 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $549 +$251 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $8,996 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $4,496 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $7,432 −$903 -12%
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? Jun 20 $16,041 +$490 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $836 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $13,342 +$13 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $2,098 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $5,794 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $5,994 +$6 +0%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1,490 +$24 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $787 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5,994 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5,855 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $5,438 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $6,993 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $9,460 +$13 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $3,992 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $799 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,320 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $998 +$2 +0%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $552 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 97¢ $96 3m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? SELL No 100¢ $971 36m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? SELL No 100¢ $28 48m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? SELL No 100¢ $18 49m
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 99¢ $302 1h
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 97¢ $347 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $499 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $668 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $121 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1,099 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $540 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $799 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $512 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,086 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $392 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $17 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $2,588 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $699 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $808 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $160 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $55 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $574 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $549 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $798 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,875.17 · official $24,875.07 (match) · 3500 history records