Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:23:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2D 0x2d88…5871 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$138 (+19%) realized +$138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$41
sports 3% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +6.1% -4.0% 56% 56% -5.8%
≤30d 9 +6.1% -4.0% 56% 56% -5.8%
≤90d 9 +6.1% -4.0% 56% 56% -5.8%
all 9 +6.1% -4.0% 56% 56% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 56% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 56% -14.8%
15% -21.5% 22% -23.0%
20% -29.2% 11% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$40 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $147 −$146 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $273 +$90 +33%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $117 +$30 +26%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 −$1 -10%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$26 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $46 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 8¢ $15 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $299 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $59 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $52 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $146 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 20h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $16 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 73¢ $16 20h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 22h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $61 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $49 22h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $32 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $96 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $20 24h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $71 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records