Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:28:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2D 0x2d88…a5a3 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$246 (+24%) realized +$246 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$307
world 10% −$102
other 5% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +25.3% +13.4% 50% 50% +14.0%
≤30d 16 +25.3% +13.4% 50% 50% +14.0%
≤90d 16 +25.3% +13.4% 50% 50% +14.0%
all 16 +25.3% +13.4% 50% 50% +14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.4% 50% +14.0%
10% +2.5% 50% +3.1%
15% -7.4% 50% -6.9%
20% -16.5% 50% -16.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$60 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$246
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $51 −$4 -8%
Map Handicap: JL (-1.5) vs CGN Esports (+1.5) Jun 23 $25 +$42 +166%
Valorant: Joblife vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group B Jun 23 $51 +$35 +70%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $51 +$51 +101%
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro Jun 23 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$58 +115%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 +$66 +65%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 +$77 +152%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $102 +$374 +365%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $76 −$75 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 49¢ $46 1h
Map Handicap: JL (-1.5) vs CGN Esports (+1.5) SELL Joblife 100¢ $68 1h
Valorant: Joblife vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group B SELL Joblife 100¢ $86 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL FOKUS 100¢ $102 1h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro SELL Mandatory 100¢ $91 2h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 55¢ $51 7h
Map Handicap: JL (-1.5) vs CGN Esports (+1.5) BUY Joblife 37¢ $25 7h
Valorant: Joblife vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group B BUY Joblife 58¢ $51 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $109 19h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 94¢ $168 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 21h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 52¢ $51 21h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 49¢ $51 21h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Eternal Fire 48¢ $51 21h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 46¢ $51 21h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $101 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $51 27h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr BUY Beşiktaş Esports 51¢ $51 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 47h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 21¢ $51 2d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 21¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Virtus.pro 49¢ $76 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records