Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2D
0x2d8a…e818
crypto · 30 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$9,191 -60%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9,191 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses8 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
Avg bet$512
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 0 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$456
7 days−$456
14 days−$456
30 days−$456
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $188 $0 −$188 (-100%)
Real Madrid CF leading at halftime? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $710 $0 −$710 (-100%)
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 35¢ 0¢ $315 $0 −$315 (-100%)
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $124 $0 −$124 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Over 57¢ 0¢ $2,781 $0 −$2,781 (-100%)
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Over 37¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5,000 $0 −$5,000 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? No 42¢ 0¢ $199 $0 −$199 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $888 $0 −$888 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $270 $0 −$270 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $323 −$297 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $130 −$124 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $299 +$133 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $88 −$59 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $120 +$26 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $171 +$72 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $99 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $81 +$16 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 10 $726 −$710 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 10 $201 −$188 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 10 $285 −$270 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 10 $514 +$397 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 10 $85 −$80 -94%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 11.5 Total Corners May 10 $194 +$222 +114%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 10 $1,044 −$563 -54%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 12.5 Total Corners May 10 $321 −$315 -98%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 10 $2,817 −$2,781 -99%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 May 10 $306 −$300 -98%
Real Madrid CF leading at halftime? May 10 $307 −$300 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $615 +$2,540 +413%
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO? May 09 $308 −$300 -97%
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? May 09 $203 −$199 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $888 −$888 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 05 $5,112 −$5,000 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 37% −$5,600
sports 36% −$1,396
crypto 21% −$1,307
world 6% −$888
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-51.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -51.8% -56.4% 36% 29% -38.3%
≤30d 14 -51.8% -56.4% 36% 29% -38.3%
≤90d 30 -45.8% -51.0% 27% 23% -64.5%
all 30 -45.8% -51.0% 27% 23% -64.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.0% 23% -64.5%
10% -55.6% 17% -67.9%
15% -59.9% 17% -71.0%
20% -63.9% 10% -73.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records