Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:30:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d8c…0133 crypto 40 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$142 (-14%) realized −$142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%20W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day67.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$146
finance 2% −$19
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -11.0% -19.4% 50% 42% -30.1%
≤30d 40 -11.0% -19.4% 50% 42% -30.1%
≤90d 40 -11.0% -19.4% 50% 42% -30.1%
all 40 -11.0% -19.4% 50% 42% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 42% -30.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 28% -36.8%
15% -34.2% 22% -42.9%
20% -40.6% 18% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses20 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day67.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$10 +38%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$8 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $153 −$23 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$22 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$9 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $77 −$33 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $42 −$18 -42%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $70 +$22 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $25 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$10 +195%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -80%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$7 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $35 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 82¢ $16 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 79¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $122 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $43 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records