Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2D 0x2d8d…778d crypto 79 markets active 11h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$220 (+1%) realized +$220 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate70%55W / 24L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$418per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days−$964
14 days−$1,626
30 days+$493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$679
crypto 23% −$26
other 14% −$1,729
tech 11% +$316
sports 8% +$715
finance 7% +$151
economics 3% +$48
politics 1% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -5.5% -14.5% 72% 33% -15.1%
≤30d 50 +8.9% -1.4% 70% 36% -8.0%
≤90d 79 +4.7% -5.3% 70% 33% -9.0%
all 79 +4.7% -5.3% 70% 33% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 33% -9.0%
10% -14.4% 15% -17.7%
15% -22.6% 8% -25.7%
20% -30.2% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$802) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$167 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$220
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses55 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 79
History coverage66d
Avg bet$418
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 17 $896 +$48 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $802 +$40 +5%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,473 +$347 +24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,267 −$1,793 -55%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 +$22 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $760 −$31 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $23 −$14 -59%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $1,058 +$186 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1,197 +$126 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1,007 +$88 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1,277 +$102 +8%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1,041 +$11 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $450 +$73 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $402 +$69 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $887 +$10 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $983 −$221 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $900 +$83 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,174 −$296 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,007 −$449 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 03 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 03 $6 +$3 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $996 −$9 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $760 +$98 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $858 +$25 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 02 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 02 $90 +$6 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $464 +$405 +87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,003 +$49 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 1? Jun 01 $16 −$11 -70%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $2,007 +$208 +10%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,011 +$350 +35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $833 −$195 -24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1,160 +$219 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $405 +$48 +12%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 28 $383 +$23 +6%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 26 $483 −$101 -21%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $138 +$1,021 +740%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $48 +$7 +14%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $70 +$13 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $111 +$7 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 51¢ $943 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $400 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $192 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $28 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,820 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,473 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1,474 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $761 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $122 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $729 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $23 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,507 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,002 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 88¢ $804 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 53¢ $184 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 56¢ $204 5d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 94¢ $501 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,379 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 91¢ $276 5d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? SELL Up 92¢ $712 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,052 5d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 97¢ $1,052 5d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 98¢ $39 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 217 history records