Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:32:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2D 0x2d8e…5d6a crypto 1043 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,484 (-12%) realized −$2,484 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%628W / 426L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day43.8pace
Fees−$135est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$225
7 days+$225
14 days−$100
30 days+$345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$290
sports 45% −$1,875
other 2% +$274
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -71.1% -73.8% 14% 14% +22.7%
≤30d 93 -10.6% -19.1% 60% 55% +1.8%
≤90d 1054 -5.9% -14.8% 60% 56% -18.1%
all 1054 -5.9% -14.8% 60% 56% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 56% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 50% -25.9%
15% -30.4% 42% -33.1%
20% -37.3% 25% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$22 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,484
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses628 / 426
Est. fees paid−$135
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1054 / 1043
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day43.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1054 Trades
no open positions (207 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq to win the second half? Jun 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: Second half draw? Jun 26 $24 +$49 +209%
France to win the second half? Jun 26 $426 +$314 +74%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Second half draw? Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Türkiye to win the second half? Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Paraguay to win the second half? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire to win the second half? Jun 25 $27 +$15 +54%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Second half draw? Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
ITF Banja Luka: Saoirse Breen vs Mirjana Jovanovic Jun 04 $11 +$8 +70%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $57 −$50 -87%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $79 +$18 +23%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ena Ilic vs Alexa Karatancheva Jun 03 $23 +$15 +65%
ITF Caserta: Kathinka Von Deichmann vs Alessandra Mazzola Jun 03 $41 −$34 -84%
Centurion 2: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Khololwam Montsi Jun 03 $69 +$15 +21%
ITF Caserta: Deborah Chiesa vs Jessica Pieri Jun 03 $56 +$12 +21%
ITF Monastir: Ryuki Matsuda vs Amine Jamji Jun 03 $10 +$5 +52%
Centurion 2: Devin Badenhorst vs Eliakim Coulibaly Jun 03 $55 +$22 +40%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Elena Milovanovic vs Victoria Pohle Jun 03 $12 +$5 +42%
ITF Monastir: Saveliy Ivanov vs Marcus Walters Jun 03 $11 +$5 +48%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $58 −$50 -87%
Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Guillaume Dalmasso Jun 03 $70 +$6 +8%
ITF Monastir: Romain Andres vs Matthew Rankin Jun 03 $11 +$5 +46%
ITF Caserta: Angelica Raggi vs Dalila Spiteri Jun 03 $63 +$13 +21%
ITF Luan: Alexey Aleshchev vs Sam Ryan Ziegann Jun 03 $12 +$5 +42%
ITF Monastir: Alice Battesti vs Maria Andrienko Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
ITF Monastir: Anas Bennour Dit Sahli vs Edison Ambarzumjan Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $23 +$7 +30%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $24 +$18 +78%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $23 +$12 +50%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $24 −$23 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $95 +$12 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $70 +$15 +22%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $61 +$15 +25%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $65 +$13 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 57¢ $27 1h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 57¢ $27 1h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 57¢ $27 1h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 57¢ $27 1h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 57¢ $27 1h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 1h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 1h
Iraq to win the second half? BUY Yes $1 1h
Iraq to win the second half? BUY Yes $2 1h
Iraq to win the second half? BUY Yes $2 1h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Second half draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iraq to win the second half? BUY Yes $2 1h
Iraq to win the second half? BUY Yes $0 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Second half draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 1h
Iraq to win the second half? BUY Yes $4 1h
Iraq to win the second half? BUY Yes $6 1h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 1h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 1h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 56¢ $39 1h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 56¢ $39 1h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 57¢ $39 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Second half draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 18h
Türkiye to win the second half? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 18h
Paraguay to win the second half? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 18h
Türkiye vs. United States: Second half draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 18h
Türkiye to win the second half? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 18h
Türkiye vs. United States: Second half draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 18h
Türkiye to win the second half? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records