Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d91…f592 crypto 1270 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (236 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15,019 (-39%) realized −$14,196 · open −$823
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate58%620W / 452L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day236.2pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2,517now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$691
other 24% −$646
world 11% −$120
sports 9% −$1,271
politics 3% −$42
tech 0% +$12
weather 0% −$5
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (236 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 934 -8.1% -16.8% 57% 48% -16.8%
≤30d 1072 -7.2% -16.0% 58% 49% -16.4%
≤90d 1072 -7.2% -16.0% 58% 49% -16.4%
all 1072 -7.2% -16.0% 58% 49% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover236.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 49% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 40% -24.4%
15% -31.4% 33% -31.7%
20% -38.1% 20% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$22 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$2,517
Realized−$14,196
Unrealized−$823
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses620 / 452
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions316
Markets (closed)1072 / 1270
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day236.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 316 History 1072 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 82¢ 90¢ $164 $181 +$17 (+10%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 85¢ 90¢ $170 $180 +$10 (+6%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 65¢ 77¢ $130 $155 +$25 (+19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 56¢ 62¢ $112 $123 +$11 (+10%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 65¢ 63¢ $74 $73 −$2 (-2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 78¢ 88¢ $39 $44 +$5 (+13%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 32¢ 86¢ $16 $43 +$28 (+175%)
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 59¢ 84¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+42%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 32¢ 20¢ $64 $39 −$25 (-39%)
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? No 84¢ 97¢ $34 $39 +$5 (+15%)
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 56¢ 74¢ $28 $37 +$9 (+33%)
Will Željka Cvijanović be the Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $26 $34 +$8 (+31%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 55¢ 67¢ $28 $34 +$6 (+22%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $46 $33 −$13 (-28%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $40 $30 −$10 (-25%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 76¢ 97¢ $19 $24 +$5 (+27%)
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Yes 53¢ 47¢ $26 $24 −$3 (-11%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $44 $23 −$21 (-48%)
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? No 46¢ 46¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? No 30¢ 44¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+45%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $36 $21 −$15 (-41%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 38¢ 98¢ $8 $20 +$12 (+156%)
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No 46¢ 36¢ $23 $18 −$5 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 169 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$12 -1452%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +49%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 17 $0 $0 +456%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +706%
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1418%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $9 −$7 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
FDA approves Merck's Welireg + Keytruda or Keytruda Qlex? Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1037%
Will Raffaele Giordano win the 2026 Cava De' Tirreni mayoral election? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 17 $7 +$17 +235%
Will BetBoom qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $0 −$42 -11137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in June 2026 be less than or equal BUY Yes 29¢ $1 0m
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in June 2026 be less than or equal BUY Yes 29¢ $0 0m
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in June 2026 be less than or equal BUY Yes 29¢ $0 0m
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in June 2026 be less than or equal BUY Yes 29¢ $1 0m
Will four or more people dissent the July Fed decision? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 18m
Will three people dissent the July Fed decision? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 28m
Will three people dissent the July Fed decision? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 31m
Will four or more people dissent the July Fed decision? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 31m
Will three people dissent the July Fed decision? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 31m
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 31m
Will four or more people dissent the July Fed decision? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 31m
Will two people dissent the July Fed decision? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 31m
Will one person dissent the July Fed decision? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 31m
Will one person dissent the July Fed decision? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 31m
Will one person dissent the July Fed decision? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 31m
Will two people dissent the July Fed decision? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 31m
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 31m
Will two people dissent the July Fed decision? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 45m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $16 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $13 6h
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,517.27 · official $2,490.52 · 3500 history records