Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:56:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d92…7822 sports 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$341 (-22%) realized −$363 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%17W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$559
14 days−$434
30 days−$434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$158
other 48% −$147
crypto 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -15.4% -23.5% 31% 31% -72.0%
≤30d 37 -0.0% -9.5% 41% 41% -46.9%
≤90d 37 -0.0% -9.5% 41% 41% -46.9%
all 40 +15.8% +4.8% 42% 42% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.8% 42% -31.8%
10% -5.3% 42% -38.3%
15% -14.4% 42% -44.3%
20% -22.8% 40% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +108% → late -76% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$32 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$363
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions8
Markets (closed)40 / 48
History coverage285d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 38¢ 64¢ $50 $83 +$33 (+66%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) Senegal 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+8%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Belgium 23¢ 10¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-54%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $42 −$41 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Los Ratones vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) Jun 19 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament? Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the next Dutch government be another combination? Jun 19 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Hans Moke Niemann win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament? Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $10 +$21 +206%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 19 $5 +$26 +510%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $15 +$12 +76%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $14 +$16 +114%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 +$10 +146%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$18 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $20 −$1 -7%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $21 +$12 +60%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $30 +$28 +93%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $40 +$19 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -3%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Jun 12 $27 +$33 +122%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs GIANTX (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 09 $15 +$85 +567%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 08 $59 +$48 +82%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Sep 19 $286 −$46 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 21m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 23¢ $15 1h
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 1h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 23h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $10 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 29h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 33¢ $20 46h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Over $12 46h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $15 46h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $31 46h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 47h
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) BUY Senegal 13¢ $10 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $13 2d
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $15 2d
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Canada 16¢ $5 2d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 32¢ $10 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $15 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $20 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $11 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 45¢ $15 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 46¢ $14 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 6d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $30 6d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 34¢ $19 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.08 · official $147.08 (match) · 106 history records