Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:36:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d95…9dda other 225 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 215L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$19
14 days−$28
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$41
sports 23% −$19
culture 7% −$7
politics 7% −$5
economics 5% −$3
crypto 4% $0
world 4% −$3
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 168 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 224 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 215
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)224 / 225
History coverage131d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $194 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $314 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $232 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $705 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $243 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 20 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $499 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $601 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $272 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $266 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $406 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $108 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 18 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $233 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $301 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $346 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $228 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $170 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $254 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $395 −$2 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $307 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $142 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $247 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $273 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $247 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $183 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $227 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $614 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $188 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $185 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $249 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $430 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $443 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $378 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $58 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $35 26m
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 4h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 6h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 7h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 9h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 9h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 11h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 12h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 14h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 18h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 19h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $50 21h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $50 22h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $50 28h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $50 30h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 31h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 32h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 34h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 36h
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 37h
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 39h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 46h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.74 · official $14.74 (match) · 1334 history records