Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:45:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2D 0x2d96…724d other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$147 (+13%) realized +$152 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$133
7 days+$144
14 days+$121
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$234
sports 30% −$117
crypto 9% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +13.7% +2.9% 56% 56% +11.3%
≤30d 13 -10.1% -18.6% 38% 38% -7.0%
≤90d 13 -10.1% -18.6% 38% 38% -7.0%
all 13 -10.1% -18.6% 38% 38% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 38% -7.0%
10% -26.4% 38% -15.9%
15% -33.5% 38% -24.0%
20% -40.0% 38% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$39 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$152
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage110d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $86 $81 −$5 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $38 +$51 +134%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $202 −$166 -82%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$4 -68%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $160 +$113 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $100 +$105 +105%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -75%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$15 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $88 4m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $38 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 11¢ $36 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 10¢ $2 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 59¢ $155 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 61¢ $47 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $6 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $3 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Uruguay leading at halftime? AND W BUY 35¢ $271 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $160 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $100 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 8d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $5 8d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 9d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 9d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $100 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.26 · official $81.26 (match) · 29 history records