Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2D 0x2d99…7e57 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$413 (+17%) realized +$331 · open +$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$1,740now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -7.8% -16.6% 0% 0% -18.2%
≤30d 3 -7.8% -16.6% 0% 0% -18.2%
≤90d 3 -7.8% -16.6% 0% 0% -18.2%
all 3 -7.8% -16.6% 0% 0% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 0% -18.2%
10% -24.6% 0% -26.1%
15% -31.9% 0% -33.2%
20% -38.5% 0% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$7 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$1,740
Realized+$331
Unrealized+$82
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)3 / 15
History coverage16d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $400 $350 −$50 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $250 $335 +$85 (+34%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $92 $258 +$166 (+180%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $235 $250 +$15 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $173 $164 −$9 (-5%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $135 $33 −$102 (-76%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $32 $27 −$5 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $26 $20 −$6 (-23%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $36 −$2 -4%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $103 −$17 -16%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $72 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $33 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $60 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $132 1h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 1h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $154 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $34 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $86 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $70 2h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $45 8h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $405 8h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $12 10d
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $256 15d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 15d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 15d
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 15d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $411 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $359 15d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $24 15d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 15d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $36 15d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $36 15d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 16d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,740.32 · official $1,740.32 (match) · 48 history records