Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:18:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2D 0x2da1…fb50 sports 636 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,593 (+1%) realized +$6,593 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate94%598W / 35L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$1,302per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$747est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$643
7 days−$459
14 days−$932
30 days+$1,426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$6,501
other 0% −$514
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -0.8% -10.2% 94% 12% -14.5%
≤30d 138 +1.6% -8.1% 94% 12% -8.7%
≤90d 446 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 9% -9.0%
all 633 +0.5% -9.1% 94% 9% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 9% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 2% -17.6%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$1,938) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$766 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,593
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses598 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$747
Open positions0
Markets (closed)633 / 636
History coverage113d
Avg bet$1,302
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 633 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $359 +$14 +4%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $342 +$17 +5%
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 25 $340 +$3 +1%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $323 +$16 +5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 24 $310 +$12 +4%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $287 +$24 +8%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Emiliana Arango Jun 24 $285 +$2 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 24 $256 +$27 +11%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1,016 −$759 -75%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $974 +$42 +4%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $238 +$7 +3%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $949 +$18 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $858 +$91 +11%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $841 +$16 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys Jun 23 $102 +$1 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 23 $833 +$7 +1%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $57 +$13 +23%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $57 +$1 +1%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $44 +$13 +29%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $42 +$2 +5%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $36 +$6 +16%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $33 +$3 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $623 −$590 -95%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $2,175 −$941 -43%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $612 +$5 +1%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $1,529 +$29 +2%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $1,501 +$28 +2%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $1,487 +$13 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,388 +$100 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,312 +$76 +6%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $1,198 +$114 +10%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $1,161 +$34 +3%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $346 −$8 -2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $437 −$263 -60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $395 +$43 +11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $372 +$23 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,085 −$714 -66%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $32 +$2 +6%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $1,000 +$83 +8%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $1,139 +$33 +3%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $783 +$7 +1%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $1,097 +$32 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $994 +$106 +11%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $1,422 +$71 +5%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1,313 +$109 +8%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $1,620 +$193 +12%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $1,401 +$220 +16%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $1,375 +$26 +2%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $1,363 +$12 +1%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $1,351 +$12 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $374 27m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 96¢ $3 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 96¢ $356 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson SELL Karolina Muchova 100¢ $360 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Karolina Muchova 95¢ $342 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse SELL Gabriela Ruse 100¢ $343 4h
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Gabriela Ruse 99¢ $340 4h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $339 23h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $323 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $323 26h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Petra Marcinko 98¢ $2 26h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Petra Marcinko 96¢ $308 26h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 100¢ $311 27h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 92¢ $1 27h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 92¢ $286 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Emiliana Arango SELL Caty McNally 100¢ $287 28h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Emiliana Arango BUY Caty McNally 99¢ $285 28h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic SELL Tereza Valentova 100¢ $283 28h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Tereza Valentova 90¢ $256 29h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 25¢ $257 45h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $1,016 47h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,016 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 96¢ $974 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $245 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $40 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $198 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart SELL Zeynep Sonmez 100¢ $966 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 95¢ $3 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 98¢ $946 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund SELL Sara Bejlek 100¢ $949 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1600 history records