Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:54:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2da2…abe6 politics 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$16
politics 35% −$16
sports 12% +$21
crypto 5% −$2
tech 4% −$2
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 89 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 128 -0.5% -9.9% 8% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×9.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage132d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $249 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $268 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $293 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1,103 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $238 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $234 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $797 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $254 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $222 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $233 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $212 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $714 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $482 −$1 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 06 $11 $0 +1%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $288 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $248 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $238 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $246 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $578 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 29 $273 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $228 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $224 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $227 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $242 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $264 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $240 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $282 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 21 $291 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $238 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 20 $586 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $246 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $289 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $247 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $244 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 17 $486 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $289 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $267 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $226 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 15 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 15 $289 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 14 $470 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 1h
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 2d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 2d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 18d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $212 26d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $212 26d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $209 28d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $209 29d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $249 29d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $249 30d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $301 30d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $301 30d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $268 31d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $268 32d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $293 32d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $293 33d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $289 33d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $289 34d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 34d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 34d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $238 34d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $238 36d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 36d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $234 36d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $298 37d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $298 37d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $240 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 390 history records