Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:04:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2da3…d40f crypto 433 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$244 (+2%) realized +$244 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate67%289W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day43.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$122
14 days+$41
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$55
other 0% +$7
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 193 -4.3% -13.4% 67% 42% -7.3%
≤30d 433 -4.7% -13.8% 67% 47% -9.0%
≤90d 433 -4.7% -13.8% 67% 47% -9.0%
all 433 -4.7% -13.8% 67% 47% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 47% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 33% -17.7%
15% -29.6% 23% -25.6%
20% -36.5% 17% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$244
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses289 / 144
Open positions0
Markets (closed)433 / 433
History coverage24d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 433 Trades
no open positions (50 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $175 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $202 −$14 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $51 −$19 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $40 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET Jun 26 $352 +$17 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $181 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $76 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $55 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $126 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET Jun 25 $102 −$33 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $76 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET Jun 25 $176 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$6 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$11 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $8 +$5 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $181 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $108 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $90 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $111 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1374 history records