Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:16:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2D 0x2da3…f9e3 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,241 (+30%) realized +$1,129 · open +$112
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit4%portable
Net worth$1,094now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$95
14 days+$1,086
30 days+$1,086
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$1,203
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.6% -10.1% 83% 83% +7.1%
≤30d 19 -8.1% -16.9% 68% 68% +22.2%
≤90d 19 -8.1% -16.9% 68% 68% +22.2%
all 19 -8.1% -16.9% 68% 68% +22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 68% +22.2%
10% -24.8% 42% +10.5%
15% -32.1% 26% -0.2%
20% -38.7% 16% -10.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +35% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$2 · ×50.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×109.64 per $1 lost it wins $109.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$1,094
Realized+$1,129
Unrealized+$112
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)19 / 27
History coverage12d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Will MrBeast say "Chocolate" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 21 $98 +$14 +15%
Will MrBeast say "Lose" or "Loser" during his next gaming YouTube vide Jun 20 $101 +$16 +16%
Will MrBeast say "Dream" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 20 $110 +$35 +32%
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 20 $101 +$17 +17%
Will MrBeast say "Build" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 20 $101 +$18 +18%
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $625 +$234 +38%
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $102 +$60 +59%
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n Jun 13 $658 +$265 +40%
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 10+ times during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $102 +$61 +60%
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 5+ times during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $201 +$43 +21%
Will MrBeast say "Chocolate" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $102 +$77 +76%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $707 +$237 +34%
Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube v Jun 13 $88 +$20 +22%
Will MrBeast say "Red Line" during his next YouTube video? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Jet" during his next YouTube video? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next YouTube video? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Cash" during his next YouTube video? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY No 85¢ $161 1h
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 82¢ $201 1h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 67¢ $101 5h
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 49¢ $2 5h
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 49¢ $13 5h
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY Yes 75¢ $10 29h
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 10+ times during BUY No 73¢ $101 29h
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 10+ times during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 29h
Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube v BUY Yes 73¢ $101 29h
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 29h
Will MrBeast say "Red Line" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 29h
Will MrBeast say "Chocolate" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY No 87¢ $98 4d
Will MrBeast say "Lose" or "Loser" during his next gaming YouTube vide BUY Yes 86¢ $101 4d
Will MrBeast say "Dream" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 4d
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY Yes 85¢ $101 4d
Will MrBeast say "Build" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY Yes 85¢ $101 4d
Will MrBeast say "Dream" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 4d
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY No 87¢ $2 10d
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY No 87¢ $72 10d
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY No 87¢ $25 10d
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY No 87¢ $31 10d
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY No 81¢ $37 10d
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY No 81¢ $12 10d
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY No 81¢ $17 10d
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY No 81¢ $22 10d
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY No 81¢ $28 10d
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY No 81¢ $6 10d
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 88¢ $78 10d
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 88¢ $18 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,094.25 · official $1,094.25 (match) · 65 history records