Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

2D 0x2da4…09d2 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$192 (+13%) realized +$225 · open −$33

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip

Net edge-43%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$368per market

Trades / day3.4pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-40.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-34.7%	-40.9%	33%	33%	-34.6%
≤30d	3	-34.7%	-40.9%	33%	33%	-34.6%
≤90d	3	-34.7%	-40.9%	33%	33%	-34.6%
all	3	-34.7%	-40.9%	33%	33%	-34.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-40.9%	33%	-34.6%
10%	-46.6%	33%	-40.9%
15%	-51.7%	33%	-46.6%
20%	-56.5%	0%	-51.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -28% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -35% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$249 vs −$307 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.41 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$122

Realized+$225

Unrealized−$33

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage2d

Avg bet$368

Trades / day3.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	68¢	54¢	$155	$122	−$33 (-21%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$692	−$537	-78%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$104	−$78	-74%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$521	+$249	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$156	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	19¢	$156	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	82¢	$692	19h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	11¢	$27	19h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	41¢	$104	19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$521	43h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.66 · official $121.66 (match) · 7 history records