Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:04:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2D 0x2db3…667a crypto 1547 markets active 0h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,776 (-3%) realized −$5,725 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%907W / 639L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$1,011est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$960
30 days+$628
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$2,690
sports 41% −$1,544
other 14% −$3,498
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -9.7% -18.3% 60% 52% -9.5%
≤30d 496 -3.9% -13.0% 60% 50% -8.9%
≤90d 1159 -6.3% -15.2% 61% 48% -11.0%
all 1546 -6.0% -15.0% 59% 49% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 49% -12.6%
10% -23.1% 39% -20.9%
15% -30.5% 33% -28.6%
20% -37.3% 24% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$115 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized−$5,725
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses907 / 639
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,011
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1546 / 1547
History coverage186d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1546 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 81¢ 66¢ $290 $239 −$51 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 357 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $152 +$32 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $508 +$149 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $310 +$283 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $180 +$151 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $139 +$41 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 23 $72 +$65 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $132 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $231 −$231 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $206 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $248 +$97 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $134 −$130 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $222 −$222 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $114 +$108 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $114 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $91 +$12 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $47 +$44 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$16 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $38 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $33 +$4 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $64 −$64 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $61 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $39 +$19 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$7 +32%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $11 +$11 +99%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $59 −$58 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$11 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$19 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $192 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $152 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $508 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $594 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $310 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $332 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $180 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $179 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $139 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $231 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $137 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $134 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $220 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $222 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $114 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $114 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $49 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $21 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.09 · official $239.09 (match) · 3217 history records