Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:14:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2db7…8f9b world 160 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,831 (+6%) realized +$1,673 · open +$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate59%91W / 63L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$83
14 days+$883
30 days+$1,040
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% +$1,065
other 10% −$114
sports 6% +$45
politics 5% +$374
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.8% -12.1% 71% 43% -0.2%
≤30d 24 +7.7% -2.5% 71% 42% +4.3%
≤90d 84 +3.8% -6.1% 68% 38% -3.3%
all 154 -0.9% -10.4% 59% 34% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 34% -5.4%
10% -18.9% 20% -14.4%
15% -26.8% 10% -22.7%
20% -34.0% 8% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$32 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$1,391
Realized+$1,673
Unrealized+$158
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses91 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions6
Markets (closed)154 / 160
History coverage116d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 30¢ 51¢ $289 $485 +$196 (+68%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 75¢ 68¢ $416 $379 −$37 (-9%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? No 89¢ 100¢ $300 $334 +$34 (+11%)
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 60¢ 59¢ $149 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $43 $37 −$6 (-14%)
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $35 $8 −$27 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-Ju Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 22 $31 −$7 -24%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $90 +$5 +6%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $310 +$49 +16%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 22 $260 +$17 +7%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Jun 20 $30 +$7 +22%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Jun 20 $60 +$31 +52%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $684 +$210 +31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $1,100 +$61 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $920 −$159 -17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $80 −$79 -99%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $510 +$738 +145%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $127 −$4 -3%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 13 $255 +$32 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $150 +$16 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $130 +$7 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $200 −$87 -43%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $356 +$8 +2%
Will VOX (VOX) win 19-21 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 53-55 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Region Jun 07 $30 +$49 +164%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 59-61 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Region Jun 07 $497 +$38 +8%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 62 or more seats in the 2026 Andalusia R Jun 07 $351 +$27 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $558 +$130 +23%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 56-58 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Region May 28 $19 +$10 +54%
Will VOX (VOX) win 13-15 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election May 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 27 $446 +$258 +58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $395 +$36 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $280 +$18 +6%
Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority? May 22 $193 +$283 +147%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 16 $829 −$301 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? May 09 $45 +$17 +38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 04 $292 −$134 -46%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $600 +$16 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 23 $20 −$17 -82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $115 +$17 +15%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $396 +$32 +8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 14 $30 +$3 +10%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? Apr 14 $131 +$14 +11%
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? Apr 14 $535 +$236 +44%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 13 $110 +$23 +21%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 13 $17 +$4 +25%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 13 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, Apr 12 $7 +$1 +13%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 12 $141 +$35 +25%
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? Apr 11 $16 −$5 -32%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $648 +$19 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu SELL Yes 2¢ $12 21m
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 50¢ $2 46m
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 60¢ $60 1h
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 60¢ $30 1h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 50¢ $5 1h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 60¢ $60 1h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 52¢ $52 1h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 50¢ $1 1h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 50¢ $40 1h
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 40¢ $162 1h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 7¢ $4 2h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 42¢ $42 2h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,390.73 · official $1,390.73 (match) · 980 history records