Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2D 0x2db8…e042 sports 1551 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 221d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,951 (-2%) realized −$2,911 · open −$40
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate69%1073W / 475L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$437est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days−$439
14 days−$853
30 days−$3,052
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$2,268
other 10% +$284
world 0% −$70
crypto 0% −$8
politics 0% +$10
culture 0% −$50
economics 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -14.5% -22.6% 60% 58% -20.7%
≤30d 208 -12.4% -20.8% 64% 52% -18.5%
≤90d 595 +1.7% -8.0% 72% 60% -10.3%
all 1548 -2.7% -12.0% 69% 57% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 57% -10.6%
10% -20.4% 35% -19.1%
15% -28.1% 23% -27.0%
20% -35.1% 14% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$54 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized−$2,911
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses1073 / 475
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$437
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1548 / 1551
History coverage221d ⚠
Avg bet$115
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1548 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Raphael Collignon 81¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova Tereza Valentova 90¢ 74¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya Anna Kalinskaya 88¢ 69¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Jun 22 $50 −$17 -35%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$33 +65%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $50 +$9 +18%
Set Handicap: Fernandez (-1.5) vs Boulter (+1.5) Jun 21 $50 +$16 +32%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$17 +17%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 +$20 +97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$83 +162%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $50 +$18 +36%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $51 +$33 +65%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewink Jun 20 $100 +$16 +16%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito Jun 20 $50 +$11 +23%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Set Handicap: Sierra (-1.5) vs Seidel (+1.5) Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Ella Seidel Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$13 +26%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $50 +$13 +26%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $101 +$21 +21%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $50 +$22 +44%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Tajon Buchanan: 1+ goals Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $50 +$18 +36%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $50 +$9 +18%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $50 +$15 +29%
Set Handicap: McNally (-1.5) vs Pliskova (+1.5) Jun 18 $50 +$21 +42%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $50 +$11 +21%
Harry Kane: 3+ shots Jun 18 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Set Handicap: Gea (-1.5) vs Harris (+1.5) Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $50 +$13 +26%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $50 +$14 +27%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$24 +24%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $100 +$55 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Raphael Collignon 81¢ $101 48m
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 88¢ $100 49m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 90¢ $100 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $51 11h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $50 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 11h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 76¢ $50 28h
Set Handicap: Fernandez (-1.5) vs Boulter (+1.5) BUY Boulter 75¢ $50 28h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 68¢ $50 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 32h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $20 40h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists BUY Yes 24¢ $20 40h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $20 40h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY 37¢ $51 43h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewink BUY Zeynep Sonmez 86¢ $100 47h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 73¢ $50 2d
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall BUY Alexander Shevchenko 65¢ $51 2d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Linda Noskova 60¢ $51 2d
Set Handicap: Sierra (-1.5) vs Seidel (+1.5) BUY Seidel 68¢ $50 2d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Ella Seidel BUY Ella Seidel 43¢ $51 2d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito BUY Diane Parry 81¢ $50 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $50 2d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 86¢ $60 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Tommy Paul 79¢ $50 2d
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Ann Li 55¢ $101 2d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 82¢ $101 2d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Elina Svitolina 69¢ $50 3d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Linda Noskova 69¢ $50 3d
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Alex de Minaur 71¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.02 · official $258.92 (match) · 3500 history records