Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:47:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2db9…cdc5 crypto 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$191 (-5%) realized −$191 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%38W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$545
7 days−$95
14 days−$83
30 days−$299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$510
sports 34% −$391
weather 8% −$185
crypto 7% −$157
world 2% −$58
culture 2% −$27
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -14.5% -22.7% 31% 26% -12.2%
≤30d 92 -11.8% -20.2% 39% 35% -16.8%
≤90d 99 -11.1% -19.6% 38% 34% -16.9%
all 99 -11.1% -19.6% 38% 34% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 34% -16.9%
10% -27.3% 32% -24.8%
15% -34.3% 32% -32.1%
20% -40.7% 25% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$26 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses38 / 61
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)99 / 101
History coverage32d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 99 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 +$5 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 −$15 -51%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $96 −$67 -70%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 −$4 -29%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $57 +$41 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$1 -4%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $13 −$5 -44%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $65 +$3 +5%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 3? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 27? Jun 16 $8 −$5 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 19? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 19? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $49 −$45 -92%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $164 −$118 -72%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $18 −$13 -73%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $81 −$62 -77%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $129 −$94 -73%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $261 +$187 +71%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $153 −$19 -13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $109 −$94 -86%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $549 −$420 -76%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $343 +$315 +92%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$22 -43%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $116 −$49 -42%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $57 −$4 -8%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $73 +$321 +442%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $75 −$3 -4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $150 +$83 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 +$14 +36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$60 -60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $63 +$64 +102%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $90 +$103 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $81 +$34 +42%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $7 +$5 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$3 +178%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 29? May 29 $5 −$5 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 44¢ $20 39m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $19 49m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 58m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 59m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $29 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 17¢ $28 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $96 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 33¢ $5 5h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 13h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 98¢ $98 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $31 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 39¢ $38 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $40 14h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 69¢ $10 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 36¢ $7 20h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 62¢ $13 20h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $11 29h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $19.27 · 302 history records