Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:24:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2dbb…2e57 sports 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$99 (-2%) realized +$14 · open −$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%31W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$145
crypto 4% +$8
other 2% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 1 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 7 -19.9% -27.6% 43% 43% -30.4%
all 63 +0.9% -8.7% 49% 48% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 48% -11.8%
10% -17.5% 46% -20.3%
15% -25.4% 38% -28.0%
20% -32.8% 32% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% too few recent
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$39 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses31 / 32
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)63 / 67
History coverage112d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-98%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 23 $203 −$3 -2%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Noemi Basiletti vs Ajla Tomljanovic May 08 $95 +$47 +50%
LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 14 $94 −$93 -99%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 14 $171 −$79 -46%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Apr 14 $169 −$167 -99%
Avalanche vs. Oilers Apr 14 $100 +$85 +85%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports (BO5) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 13 $80 +$22 +27%
BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alex Michelsen Mar 12 $200 +$60 +30%
Cherbourg: Dan Added vs Murphy Cassone Mar 11 $100 +$47 +47%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Serie Mar 11 $100 +$49 +49%
Hersonissos 2: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Kimmer Coppejans Mar 11 $150 −$100 -67%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #17 Mar 11 $60 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Favbet (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #17 Play Mar 11 $100 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pla Mar 11 $100 −$3 -3%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 11 $400 −$104 -26%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Mar 10 $100 +$100 +100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 10 $212 −$38 -18%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 10 $50 +$42 +85%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Mar 10 $100 +$79 +79%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 10 $100 +$123 +123%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $100 +$45 +45%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $50 +$54 +108%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $50 +$85 +171%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $99 +$35 +35%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $30 +$20 +66%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $50 +$49 +98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT Masters Santia Mar 07 $20 +$23 +117%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual Mar 06 $10 $0 -2%
Antalya 2: Anhelina Kalinina vs Panna Udvardy Mar 06 $50 +$12 +25%
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Mar 06 $30 $0 -2%
Antalya 2: Moyuka Uchijima vs Maja Chwalinska Mar 06 $127 −$107 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 06 $20 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets Mar 06 $5 +$5 +92%
Sabres vs. Penguins Mar 06 $5 +$5 +96%
Utah vs. Flyers Mar 06 $10 +$9 +89%
Bruins vs. Predators: O/U 6.5 Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Islanders vs. Kings Mar 05 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 05 $40 −$10 -25%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs NIP (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 05 $100 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 05 $10 +$14 +144%
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds Mar 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins Mar 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 05 $20 +$17 +84%
Thionville: Clement Tabur vs Kei Nishikori Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 42m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Coalesce 50¢ $102 10h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Coalesce 50¢ $102 10h
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Noemi Basiletti vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Noemi Basiletti 74¢ $74 47d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Noemi Basiletti vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Noemi Basiletti 48¢ $20 47d
LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 60¢ $94 70d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL Invictus Gaming 100¢ $94 70d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Invictus Gaming 97¢ $91 70d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 30¢ $30 70d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 34¢ $50 70d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Vitality 69¢ $100 70d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Vitality 69¢ $69 70d
Avalanche vs. Oilers BUY Avalanche 54¢ $100 72d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports (BO5) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs BUY FUT Esports 78¢ $80 73d
BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alex Michelsen BUY Daniil Medvedev 77¢ $200 103d
Hersonissos 2: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Kimmer Coppejans SELL Kimmer Coppejans 21¢ $50 104d
Hersonissos 2: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Kimmer Coppejans 63¢ $150 104d
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #17 SELL ex-RUBY 51¢ $58 104d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Favbet (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #17 Play SELL Favbet 62¢ $98 104d
Cherbourg: Dan Added vs Murphy Cassone BUY Murphy Cassone 68¢ $100 104d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pla SELL Natus Vincere 56¢ $97 104d
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #17 BUY ex-RUBY 53¢ $60 104d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Favbet (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #17 Play BUY Favbet 63¢ $100 104d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pla BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $100 104d
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Serie BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 67¢ $100 104d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 SELL FURIA 13¢ $39 104d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 BUY Astralis 78¢ $200 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.17 · official $97.17 (match) · 138 history records