Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:47:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2dbb…635e other 25 markets active 10h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$13
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$28
sports 29% +$36
crypto 12% −$9
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +2.8% -7.0% 52% 52% -14.2%
≤30d 24 +1.2% -8.5% 50% 50% -9.7%
≤90d 24 +1.2% -8.5% 50% 50% -9.7%
all 24 +1.2% -8.5% 50% 50% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 50% -9.7%
10% -17.2% 50% -18.3%
15% -25.2% 42% -26.2%
20% -32.5% 25% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage7d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 +$4 +48%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$5 +228%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$13 -64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +133%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $28 +$13 +46%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $28 +$13 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$20 +200%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$5 -26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $23 +$39 +170%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $22 −$21 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $8 9h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 12h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $7 16h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $12 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $28 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $28 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 5d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $30 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes $15 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.01 · official $3.01 (match) · 40 history records