Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:59:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

2D 0x2dbc…9e9b crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$12 (+9%) realized +$13 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate71%17W / 7L

Drawdown22%max

Avg bet$5per market

Trades / day11.5pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$10

7 days+$16

14 days+$13

30 days+$13

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-4.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+14.8%	+3.8%	56%	44%	+11.4%
≤30d	24	+5.3%	-4.7%	71%	17%	+3.5%
≤90d	24	+5.3%	-4.7%	71%	17%	+3.5%
all	24	+5.3%	-4.7%	71%	17%	+3.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.7%	17%	+3.5%
10%	-13.9%	17%	-6.4%
15%	-22.2%	12%	-15.5%
20%	-29.8%	12%	-23.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -1% → late +12% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×3.0 per $1 lost it wins $3.0

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$9

Realized+$13

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses17 / 7

Open positions2

Markets (closed)24 / 26

History coverage11d

Avg bet$5

Trades / day11.5

Drawdown22%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16?	Yes	28¢	24¢	$5	$5	−$1 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16?	Yes	40¢	36¢	$5	$4	−$0 (-9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16?	Jun 16	$5	−$2	-38%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15?	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15?	Jun 15	$2	+$2	+90%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15?	Jun 15	$12	+$1	+6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14?	Jun 14	$13	+$4	+29%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14?	Jun 14	$10	+$5	+54%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13?	Jun 13	$12	+$7	+61%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13?	Jun 13	$4	−$1	-18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13?	Jun 13	$9	$0	-3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Jun 08	$2	$0	+9%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Jun 08	$1	$0	+1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Jun 08	$1	$0	-0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Jun 08	$1	$0	+9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Jun 08	$3	$0	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Jun 08	$2	$0	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Jun 08	$1	$0	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Jun 08	$1	$0	+5%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Jun 08	$1	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Jun 08	$1	$0	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Jun 08	$2	$0	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Jun 08	$1	$0	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Jun 08	$1	$0	-0%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Jun 07	$1	$0	+5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5?	Jun 05	$5	−$3	-65%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16?	BUY Yes	41¢	$1	5m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16?	BUY Yes	41¢	$2	5m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16?	BUY Yes	28¢	$4	5m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16?	BUY Yes	27¢	$2	5m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16?	SELL No	70¢	$11	34m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16?	SELL Yes	39¢	$1	1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16?	BUY No	68¢	$11	1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16?	BUY Yes	39¢	$3	1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16?	SELL Yes	39¢	$5	1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16?	SELL Yes	22¢	$2	1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16?	SELL Yes	22¢	$1	1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16?	BUY Yes	38¢	$1	12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16?	SELL Yes	9¢	$1	17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16?	SELL Yes	9¢	$2	17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16?	BUY Yes	34¢	$3	17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16?	BUY Yes	32¢	$2	17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16?	SELL Yes	16¢	$1	17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16?	BUY Yes	39¢	$5	17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16?	SELL Yes	17¢	$1	17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16?	BUY Yes	28¢	$8	20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15?	SELL Yes	14¢	$1	20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16?	BUY Yes	24¢	$2	20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15?	SELL Yes	80¢	$3	21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15?	BUY Yes	25¢	$1	21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15?	SELL Yes	70¢	$2	21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15?	BUY Yes	38¢	$2	21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15?	SELL No	100¢	$13	23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15?	BUY No	96¢	$2	24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15?	BUY No	91¢	$1	24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15?	BUY No	93¢	$9	24h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.05 · official $9.05 (match) · 132 history records