Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:14:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2D 0x2dbd…12f3 crypto 429 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$938 (+16%) realized +$947 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%243W / 183L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day25.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$16
14 days−$93
30 days+$694
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$689
weather 1% +$13
culture 1% −$7
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +7.6% -2.7% 52% 50% -4.8%
≤30d 412 -0.6% -10.1% 57% 50% +1.5%
≤90d 426 -0.1% -9.6% 57% 51% +1.5%
all 426 -0.1% -9.6% 57% 51% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 51% +1.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 41% -8.2%
15% -26.2% 31% -17.1%
20% -33.4% 26% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$947
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses243 / 183
Open positions3
Markets (closed)426 / 429
History coverage31d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day25.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 426 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 85¢ 67¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? No 50¢ 38¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$12 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$12 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.78 · official $30.78 (match) · 1027 history records