Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2dbf…0723 other 3 markets active 6d ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-67%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% −$15
other 30% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-64.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -60.6% -64.3% 0% 0% -73.0%
≤30d 3 -60.6% -64.3% 0% 0% -73.0%
≤90d 3 -60.6% -64.3% 0% 0% -73.0%
all 3 -60.6% -64.3% 0% 0% -73.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.3% 0% -73.0%
10% -67.7% 0% -75.6%
15% -70.9% 0% -78.0%
20% -73.7% 0% -80.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$6 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 $0 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $19 −$15 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 68¢ $4 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 2¢ $4 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 11¢ $19 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 5 history records