Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2D 0x2dc0…3df6 economics 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$530 (+2%) realized +$484 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,925per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$6,711now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 92% +$362
other 8% +$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 6 +4.4% -5.6% 100% 17% -7.2%
≤90d 6 +4.4% -5.6% 100% 17% -7.2%
all 6 +4.4% -5.6% 100% 17% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 17% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 0% -16.1%
15% -22.9% 0% -24.2%
20% -30.4% 0% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$6,711
Realized+$484
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)6 / 13
History coverage39d
Avg bet$1,925
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 99¢ $4,694 $4,696 +$2 (+0%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 95¢ 98¢ $950 $984 +$34 (+4%)
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $589 $590 +$1 (+0%)
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 100¢ $177 $180 +$3 (+2%)
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $161 $163 +$1 (+1%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 95¢ 100¢ $58 $61 +$3 (+5%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 70¢ 74¢ $36 $37 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $3,460 +$40 +1%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th Jun 16 $1,064 +$16 +2%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $3,749 +$77 +2%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 16 $6,488 +$74 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $895 +$140 +16%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $2,702 +$125 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $15 38m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $20 45m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $197 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $19 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $4,446 3h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 97¢ $102 6h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 98¢ $1 6h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 98¢ $218 9h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 98¢ $55 9h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 98¢ $50 13h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 98¢ $38 15h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 98¢ $37 21h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 70¢ $36 33h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 98¢ $29 33h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 98¢ $29 33h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 98¢ $29 33h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 m BUY No 95¢ $542 42h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $1,488 2d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 m BUY No 95¢ $201 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 m BUY No 95¢ $168 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 m BUY No 95¢ $19 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 m BUY No 95¢ $19 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $14 8d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $6 8d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $39 8d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $29 8d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $29 8d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $3 8d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $79 8d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $60 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,710.84 · official $6,710.84 (match) · 117 history records