Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:23:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2D 0x2dc0…991d other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$133 (+4%) realized +$110 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +57% what you keep after slip
Net edge+57%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$2,209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$45
economics 21% −$31
crypto 17% −$42
sports 15% +$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+63.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +80.4% +63.2% 38% 38% +3.8%
≤30d 13 +80.4% +63.2% 38% 38% +3.8%
≤90d 13 +80.4% +63.2% 38% 38% +3.8%
all 13 +80.4% +63.2% 38% 38% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +63.2% 38% +3.8%
10% +47.6% 38% -6.1%
15% +33.3% 38% -15.2%
20% +20.2% 23% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +235% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$50 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$2,209
Realized+$110
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions26
Markets (closed)13 / 39
History coverage6d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $500 $491 −$9 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 12¢ 22¢ $100 $185 +$85 (+85%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $200 $185 −$15 (-8%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 53¢ 56¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $96 $94 −$2 (-2%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 35¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 67¢ 60¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 88¢ $10 $49 +$39 (+386%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$292 +1420%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$54 +262%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $508 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 6h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $10 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 39¢ $103 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 59¢ $100 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 3d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 3d
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $106 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 3d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 4d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $101 5d
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $10 6d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 6d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,208.86 · official $2,210.27 (match) · 53 history records