Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2dc1…7bb8 weather 70 markets active 6h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$238 (-8%) realized −$238 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate27%19W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day66.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$220
weather 20% −$92
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -25.8% -32.8% 24% 9% -19.3%
≤30d 70 -24.0% -31.2% 27% 10% -19.2%
≤90d 70 -24.0% -31.2% 27% 10% -19.2%
all 70 -24.0% -31.2% 27% 10% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.2% 10% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -37.8% 3% -26.9%
15% -43.8% 3% -34.0%
20% -49.3% 3% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$238
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses19 / 51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage7d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day66.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 −$12 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 −$12 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$7 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $13 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$7 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $9 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $234 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$1 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $19 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $422 −$59 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $30 −$4 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $516 −$66 -13%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $47 −$2 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $17 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $16 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $19 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 84¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 84¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $29 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $12 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $9 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 91¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $29 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 91¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 91¢ $21 8h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $29 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 1¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 2¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 488 history records