Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:31:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2D 0x2dc2…fcad sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11,787 (+29%) realized +$11,787 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$5,782per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$741est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,810
7 days−$18,648
14 days+$6,613
30 days+$6,613
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$6,613
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -30.8% -37.4% 33% 33% -65.3%
≤30d 7 +9.8% -0.6% 43% 43% +5.4%
≤90d 7 +9.8% -0.6% 43% 43% +5.4%
all 7 +9.8% -0.6% 43% 43% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.6% 43% +5.4%
10% ← realistic here -10.1% 43% -4.7%
15% -18.8% 43% -13.9%
20% -26.8% 43% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10,166 vs −$5,971 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11,787
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$741
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage13d
Avg bet$5,782
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 23 $6,090 −$4,810 -79%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $5,102 −$5,000 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 18 $4,076 −$4,076 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 18 $10,149 −$10,000 -98%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 17 $20 +$18 +91%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $5,077 +$5,219 +103%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $9,957 +$25,261 +254%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 11¢ $1,281 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 50¢ $6,090 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 32¢ $5,102 5d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5,074 5d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5,075 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $4,076 6d
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) BUY New York Mets 52¢ $20 7d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5,077 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 13¢ $41 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 28¢ $9,916 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records