Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:59:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2dca…ffd2 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%14W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$4
other 20% $0
crypto 4% −$2
tech 2% $0
politics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.6% -11.0% 20% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 21 -0.7% -10.2% 24% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 21 -0.7% -10.2% 24% 0% -10.0%
all 40 -3.4% -12.6% 35% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 0% -10.1%
10% -21.0% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage465d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $9 $0 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $45 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $44 −$1 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $35 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $42 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 18 $83 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $28 −$3 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $63 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $81 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $46 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $63 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $108 −$1 -1%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 29 $2 −$1 -59%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 22 $11 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1300 on Apr 25? Apr 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -70%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Mar 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 19 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 15 $2 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $34 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $12 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $45 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $38 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $7 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $45 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $36 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $37 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $46 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $46 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $41 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $42 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $17 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $17 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 29¢ $24 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 29¢ $1 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $28 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $45 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records