Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:40:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2dca…3401 crypto 1230 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$769 (-0%) realized −$769 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate88%1213W / 170L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 85d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$406
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 232 -64.3% -67.7% 34% 1% -17.2%
≤30d 431 -34.3% -40.6% 65% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 1383 -10.4% -18.9% 88% 0% -10.4%
all 1383 -10.4% -18.9% 88% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 0% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 0% -19.0%
15% -33.7% 0% -26.8%
20% -40.2% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$54 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$769
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1213 / 170
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1383 / 1230
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$256
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1383 Trades
no open positions (164 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 4AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 2AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 7AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 11PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 5AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 6AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 1AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 6AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 11PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8AM ET Jun 22 $163 −$163 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $311 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $308 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $306 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $303 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $499 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $492 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $489 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $485 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $480 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $339 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $471 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $21 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $109 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $84 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $58 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $60 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $462 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $458 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $239 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records