Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2D 0x2dcb…73aa crypto 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$81 (-11%) realized −$72 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%31W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day50.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$123
other 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -17.2% -25.1% 44% 44% -23.5%
≤30d 71 -17.2% -25.1% 44% 44% -23.5%
≤90d 71 -17.2% -25.1% 44% 44% -23.5%
all 71 -17.2% -25.1% 44% 44% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 44% -23.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.3% 44% -30.8%
15% -38.8% 44% -37.5%
20% -44.8% 39% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$72
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses31 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage2d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day50.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Up 47¢ 32¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$13 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$9 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$28 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$31 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$4 -34%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$13 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$8 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +71%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$18 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$3 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $24 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $6 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $20 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $24 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $22 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.60 · official $23.14 · 128 history records