Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:10:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2dcd…d743 other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$230 (+24%) realized +$230 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%20W / 42L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$128
7 days+$446
14 days+$398
30 days+$398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$485
sports 19% −$76
crypto 3% −$1
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +32.1% +19.5% 48% 48% +57.3%
≤30d 62 -15.3% -23.4% 32% 32% +29.0%
≤90d 62 -15.3% -23.4% 32% 32% +29.0%
all 62 -15.3% -23.4% 32% 32% +29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 32% +29.0%
10% -30.7% 32% +16.7%
15% -37.4% 32% +5.4%
20% -43.5% 32% -4.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +43% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$8 · ×4.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses20 / 42
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage13d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $25 +$13 +53%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $99 +$135 +136%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $15 +$18 +124%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$14 -97%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$20 +206%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$19 +197%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 +$29 +596%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $134 +$241 +180%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$10 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$29 +291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$20 +101%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $76 +$44 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $49 −$49 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$24 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $89 +$83 +93%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 93¢ $38 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 94¢ $234 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $99 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 31h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 40¢ $15 32h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $15 32h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 42h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $10 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $10 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $10 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 14¢ $5 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.70 · official $19.70 (match) · 97 history records