Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:38:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2D 0x2dd3…da91 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+9%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$47
14 days+$50
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$10
other 41% +$38
crypto 7% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -25.8% -32.8% 48% 38% -0.5%
≤30d 25 -21.2% -28.7% 48% 40% -1.7%
≤90d 25 -21.2% -28.7% 48% 40% -1.7%
all 25 -21.2% -28.7% 48% 40% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 40% -1.7%
10% -35.5% 40% -11.1%
15% -41.7% 40% -19.7%
20% -47.4% 24% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$11 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage15d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $139 +$3 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $44 +$56 +129%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $40 +$3 +6%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $50 +$35 +70%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 +$10 +52%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $24 +$16 +64%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $14 +$6 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 +$8 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$7 -66%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$25 +83%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $34 −$34 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$13 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 62¢ $54 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $139 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 11h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $0 11h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $0 12h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $8 12h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $8 12h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $42 14h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $29 15h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $45 37h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 37h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $1 37h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $1 38h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $19 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 69¢ $20 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $14 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $11 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $4 6d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records