Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:10:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2dd4…ceac sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-6%) realized +$91 · open −$101
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +11.3% +0.7% 50% 50% +99.7%
≤30d 2 +11.3% +0.7% 50% 50% +99.7%
≤90d 2 +11.3% +0.7% 50% 50% +99.7%
all 2 +11.3% +0.7% 50% 50% +99.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.7% 50% +99.7%
10% ← realistic here -8.9% 50% +80.6%
15% -17.7% 50% +63.2%
20% -25.8% 50% +47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$91
Unrealized−$101
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Sashi Esport (+1.5) Inner Circle Esports 23¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Germany 5¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 33¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $46 +$4 +9%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $14 −$4 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Sashi Esport (+1.5) BUY Inner Circle Esports 24¢ $9 1h
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Sashi Esport (+1.5) BUY Inner Circle Esports 23¢ $35 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 21¢ $6 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 33¢ $10 2h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 5¢ $4 2h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 5¢ $4 2h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 7¢ $5 2h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 7¢ $5 2h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 18¢ $10 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 33¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Acend 17¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Acend 20¢ $5 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 33¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Acend 31¢ $13 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Acend 41¢ $13 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner SELL Sharks 0¢ $0 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 17¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner SELL Acend 84¢ $24 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 4¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Acend 39¢ $16 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 33¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 16¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 25¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 32¢ $31 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.32 (match) · 24 history records