Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2dd7…a77f crypto 44 markets active 5d ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$105 (-25%) realized −$105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate48%21W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$42
14 days−$52
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$58
sports 36% −$50
other 7% −$1
politics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -46.6% -51.7% 17% 17% -66.4%
≤30d 44 -28.8% -35.6% 48% 30% -33.1%
≤90d 44 -28.8% -35.6% 48% 30% -33.1%
all 44 -28.8% -35.6% 48% 30% -33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.6% 30% -33.1%
10% -41.8% 23% -39.5%
15% -47.4% 11% -45.3%
20% -52.5% 9% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses21 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage15d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$3 +42%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 11 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $28 −$28 -99%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 09 $10 $0 -1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $15 $0 +2%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +5%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $15 +$8 +51%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 08 $5 +$4 +76%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $15 +$23 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 29 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 29 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 28 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 28 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 28 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 28 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 28 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 28 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 28 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 28 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 28 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 28 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 28 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $8 6d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 53¢ $8 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 6d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 60¢ $5 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 73¢ $28 6d
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel SELL Hanne Vandewinkel 68¢ $9 7d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 97¢ $10 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 68¢ $20 7d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 7d
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet BUY Nick Kyrgios 98¢ $15 7d
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $23 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 62¢ $20 8d
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 64¢ $10 8d
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 71¢ $5 8d
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 71¢ $5 8d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Otto Virtanen 53¢ $5 8d
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 69¢ $5 8d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 63¢ $10 9d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 98¢ $10 9d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 9d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 39¢ $10 9d
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 56¢ $5 9d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 39¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records