Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2dd9…02da politics 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 85% −$18
other 7% +$12
crypto 2% $0
world 2% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 2% −$8
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -8.4% -17.1% 17% 0% -13.2%
≤90d 33 +2.1% -7.7% 30% 12% -9.2%
all 44 +1.4% -8.2% 30% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 9% -9.7%
10% -17.0% 9% -18.4%
15% -25.0% 9% -26.3%
20% -32.4% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage603d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $22 $0 +1%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $71 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 28 $21 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $13 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $64 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 18 $6 +$5 +79%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $56 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $60 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $58 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $60 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $8 +$4 +48%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $7 +$4 +52%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $12 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 26? Apr 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 06 $21 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Mar 05 $40 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $33 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $26 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $301 −$2 -1%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $1,515 −$9 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $1,455 −$4 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $1,699 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 3d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 3d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $13 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 5d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 10d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $11 10d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 12d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 13d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $10 20d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 21d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $22 22d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $11 22d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $11 22d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $13 26d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 26d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $13 27d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $13 27d
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 49¢ $8 27d
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $64 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $6 30d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $64 30d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Milwaukee Brewers 55¢ $6 32d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 35d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 35d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $60 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.43 · official $36.43 (match) · 283 history records