Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2D 0x2ddb…24dd other 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$33 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 87L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$16
14 days−$20
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$10
politics 24% −$7
economics 5% −$1
sports 4% −$17
culture 2% −$1
crypto 2% +$1
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 17 -11.8% -20.2% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 96 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 8% -9.7%
all 98 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 8% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 8% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 7% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)98 / 100
History coverage93d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $134 $134 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $610 −$1 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $318 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $58 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $111 +$1 +1%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $235 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 24 $42 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $222 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 17 $226 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $444 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $464 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $233 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 10 $223 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $231 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $245 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $242 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $245 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $240 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $244 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $227 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $227 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $435 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $230 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $246 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $247 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $241 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $435 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $244 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $231 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $455 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $227 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $241 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $236 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $250 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 3h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $67 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 3d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 4d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 4d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $14 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $134 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $4 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 10d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 12d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 12d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 13d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $40 17d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $40 17d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $53 18d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $54 18d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $80 19d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 19d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 19d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 20d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 20d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 22d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 23d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.72 · official $201.72 (match) · 305 history records