Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:04:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2D 0x2dde…e1c4 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$304 (+3%) realized +$304 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate100%16W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$660per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$16
30 days+$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$19
crypto 39% +$6
sports 9% +$277
politics 7% +$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 5 +24.8% +12.9% 100% 20% -3.5%
≤90d 16 +7.9% -2.4% 100% 6% -7.0%
all 16 +7.9% -2.4% 100% 6% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 6% -7.0%
10% -11.7% 6% -15.9%
15% -20.3% 6% -24.1%
20% -28.1% 6% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$304
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses16 / 0
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage97d
Avg bet$660
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $206 $206 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,115 +$12 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,114 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $1,111 +$3 +0%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $225 +$275 +122%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $7.50 in May? Jun 01 $835 +$1 +0%
Will "Nemesis" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 20 $213 +$2 +1%
Will "La Brea: Season 3" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 20 $233 $0 +0%
Will "Legends: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 20 $385 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on May 13? May 14 $830 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 06 $829 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 14? Apr 15 $828 +$1 +0%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $827 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on April 8? Apr 09 $276 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on April 8? Apr 09 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 4? Apr 05 $825 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of March? Mar 31 $824 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $207 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,115 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 100¢ $1,114 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1,111 17d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 45¢ $147 21d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 45¢ $1 21d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 45¢ $1 21d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 45¢ $1 21d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 45¢ $28 21d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 45¢ $17 21d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 45¢ $31 21d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $7.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $835 35d
Will "Nemesis" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY No 99¢ $213 42d
Will "Legends: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY No 99¢ $385 42d
Will "La Brea: Season 3" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $233 42d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $830 49d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $829 62d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $828 77d
Thunder vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 100¢ $827 79d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $276 84d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $549 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $825 88d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of March? BUY Yes 100¢ $824 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.29 · official $206.29 (match) · 39 history records