Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:52:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2ddf…d8c4 politics 174 markets active 13h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,087 (-1%) realized −$3,087 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%39W / 135L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,220per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$18
14 days−$37
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$116
other 35% −$277
sports 12% −$2,721
economics 5% −$13
culture 1% −$3
world 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 47 +0.8% -8.8% 9% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 103 -5.1% -14.1% 9% 5% -11.8%
all 174 +3.6% -6.2% 22% 11% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 11% -10.9%
10% -15.2% 11% -19.4%
15% -23.4% 9% -27.2%
20% -30.9% 6% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,883) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$29 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,087
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses39 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)174 / 174
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1,220
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 174 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 22 $1,860 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $270 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $257 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,859 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $1,949 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,868 −$5 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,873 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $988 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,393 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $2,001 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,866 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $2,373 −$4 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $213 $0 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,011 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,225 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $955 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,011 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,981 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $3,370 −$4 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $992 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,857 −$2 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $55 +$65 +119%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,640 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,769 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,871 −$4 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 04 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $4,194 −$4 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $55 +$68 +124%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,984 −$3 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $472 $0 +0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $606 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,568 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,068 −$2 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 25 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $2,063 −$3 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,070 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,032 −$2 -0%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $917 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $49 +$85 +172%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $691 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $558 13h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $559 14h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $269 17h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $270 19h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $257 42h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $257 43h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $515 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $515 4d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $901 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $902 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $884 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $886 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,082 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,083 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,073 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,074 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $852 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $853 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $986 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $988 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,040 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,042 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,023 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,024 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $869 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $870 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $795 9d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $796 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $710 11d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $711 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 574 history records