Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:08:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2ddf…7510 sports 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$134 (-53%) realized −$139 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -14.9% -23.0% 57% 57% -52.7%
≤30d 7 -14.9% -23.0% 57% 57% -52.7%
≤90d 7 -14.9% -23.0% 57% 57% -52.7%
all 7 -14.9% -23.0% 57% 57% -52.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 57% -52.7%
10% -30.3% 57% -57.3%
15% -37.1% 29% -61.4%
20% -43.2% 14% -65.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$50 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: FUSION vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Season LAZER 75¢ 92¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Elevate vs F4TALITY (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Play-In Jun 22 $20 +$19 +94%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula Jun 22 $20 +$7 +36%
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re Jun 22 $20 +$7 +33%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr Jun 22 $20 +$7 +33%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $110 −$109 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: FUSION vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea BUY LAZER 75¢ $5 29m
Valorant: FUSION vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea BUY LAZER 75¢ $15 30m
Valorant: Elevate vs F4TALITY (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Play-In SELL F4TALITY 100¢ $39 1h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula SELL ShindeN 100¢ $27 1h
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re SELL Leviatán Academy 100¢ $27 1h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula BUY ShindeN 73¢ $13 3h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula BUY ShindeN 73¢ $7 3h
Valorant: Elevate vs F4TALITY (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Play-In BUY F4TALITY 51¢ $4 4h
Valorant: Elevate vs F4TALITY (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Play-In BUY F4TALITY 51¢ $17 4h
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re BUY Leviatán Academy 75¢ $16 5h
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re BUY Leviatán Academy 75¢ $4 5h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 BUY Pixel Lumina 50¢ $14 7h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 BUY Pixel Lumina 50¢ $5 7h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 BUY Pixel Lumina 50¢ $1 7h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr BUY NAVI Junior 75¢ $4 9h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr BUY NAVI Junior 75¢ $4 9h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr BUY NAVI Junior 75¢ $4 9h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr BUY NAVI Junior 75¢ $8 9h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Barça eSports 56¢ $20 9h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $58 34h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $53 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.53 · official $24.53 (match) · 22 history records