Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:23:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2de0…1ab4 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$1
other 41% $0
politics 6% $0
tech 2% +$1
finance 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 14% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 -1.5% -10.9% 24% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 17 -1.5% -10.9% 24% 0% -9.6%
all 45 +0.2% -9.4% 47% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage452d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $2 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $6 $0 +5%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $31 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $54 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $113 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +2%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 19 $5 $0 -5%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 19 $2 $0 +11%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 16–23? May 18 $7 $0 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? May 17 $5 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $17 $0 +2%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 12 $17 $0 +1%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 08 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 05 $1 $0 +8%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 03 $1 $0 +4%
Eric Adams a Republican before April? Apr 03 $22 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $21 $0 -0%
10-year Treasury yield below 4% before April? Mar 29 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $31 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $35 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $35 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 30h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $31 38h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $31 41h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $31 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $31 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $23 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $23 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $31 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $31 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $31 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $8 20d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $27 20d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $35 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $4 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $23 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $4 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $32 21d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 21d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $32 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $32 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $14 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $14 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.14 · official $31.14 (match) · 123 history records