Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:53:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2D
0x2de3…0391
other · 29 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$2 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$27
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)14 / 29
History coverage27d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit45%
Chart Positions 15 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 89¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 66¢ 44¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 50¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? Yes 31¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $3 $0 +1%
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju Jun 10 $3 $0 +9%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi May 28 $8 −$3 -40%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $2 $0 +1%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 27 $5 +$3 +57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $3 +$2 +89%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 26 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1 +$1 +129%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 39% +$2
other 34% $0
sports 23% $0
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 69¢ $3 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju SELL Yes 71¢ $4 4d
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY Yes 63¢ $3 12d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $3 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi SELL Luciano Darderi 33¢ $1 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi BUY Luciano Darderi 77¢ $3 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi SELL Francisco Comesana 23¢ $1 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi BUY Francisco Comesana 51¢ $3 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton SELL Ben Shelton 44¢ $2 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton BUY Ben Shelton 42¢ $2 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi SELL Luciano Darderi 44¢ $2 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi BUY Luciano Darderi 40¢ $2 17d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 17d
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Miami Marlins 55¢ $3 18d
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $2 18d
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Miami Marlins 50¢ $3 18d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 18d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 20d
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 21d
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +20.3% +8.8% 100% 33% +0.8%
≤30d 14 +7.5% -2.8% 71% 43% -2.0%
≤90d 14 +7.5% -2.8% 71% 43% -2.0%
all 14 +7.5% -2.8% 71% 43% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 43% -2.0%
10% -12.1% 43% -11.4%
15% -20.6% 36% -19.9%
20% -28.4% 29% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.90 · official $26.91 (match) · 48 history records