Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2de5…9268 crypto 257 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,015 (+5%) realized +$1,015 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate59%152W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$34
14 days+$162
30 days+$460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -10.9% -19.4% 29% 24% -10.6%
≤30d 130 -2.1% -11.5% 58% 42% -4.0%
≤90d 257 -3.9% -13.1% 59% 42% -8.3%
all 257 -3.9% -13.1% 59% 42% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 42% -8.3%
10% -21.4% 31% -17.1%
15% -29.0% 22% -25.1%
20% -36.0% 16% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$45 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,015
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses152 / 105
Open positions0
Markets (closed)257 / 257
History coverage51d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 257 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $95 +$36 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$30 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$129 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$99 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$75 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $110 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$23 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$36 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$53 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$36 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $211 +$72 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $205 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $105 +$162 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $105 +$279 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $76 −$69 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $106 −$47 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$74 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $185 −$10 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$53 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 08 $105 +$275 +261%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $104 +$99 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 08 $130 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 08 $44 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 08 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 08 $106 −$79 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 02 $209 +$258 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 02 $106 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 29 $65 −$63 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 29 $181 −$66 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 29 $103 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 29 $92 +$36 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 29 $105 −$95 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 29 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 29 $105 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 29 $209 −$85 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 29 $105 +$253 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 29 $417 −$60 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 29 $104 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 29 $241 −$200 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 29 $102 +$18 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 29 $104 +$101 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 29 $105 −$20 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 29 $209 −$140 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 29 $309 +$30 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 29 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 29 $210 +$145 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 29 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 29 $106 −$81 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $131 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $95 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $74 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $24 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $106 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $107 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $110 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $82 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $248 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $100 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $267 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 706 history records