Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

2D 0x2de9…0d91 crypto 20 markets active 22h ago coverage 41d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip

Net edge-72%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate32%6W / 13L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$621per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$4

7 days−$8

14 days−$20

30 days−$18

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-71.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	16	-62.4%	-66.0%	38%	0%	-9.7%
≤90d	19	-68.4%	-71.4%	32%	0%	-9.7%
all	19	-68.4%	-71.4%	32%	0%	-9.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-71.4%	0%	-9.7%
10%	-74.1%	0%	-18.4%
15%	-76.6%	0%	-26.3%
20%	-78.9%	0%	-33.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 33% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -68% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,055) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -89% → late -50% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.43 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage

Net worth$5

Realized−$29

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)32%

Wins / losses6 / 13

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage41d

Avg bet$621

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	96¢	96¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 23?	Jun 24	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20?	Jun 21	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16?	Jun 17	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 13?	Jun 14	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 11?	Jun 12	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 9?	Jun 10	$2,070	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9?	Jun 09	$2,066	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8?	Jun 09	$2,061	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8?	Jun 08	$2,058	+$4	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 7?	Jun 08	$2,055	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7?	Jun 07	$2,050	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5?	Jun 06	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 3?	Jun 04	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 29?	May 30	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28?	May 28	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 25?	May 26	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 20?	May 21	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 16?	May 17	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 14?	May 14	$4	−$4	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 23?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	3d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	7d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 13?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	10d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 11?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	12d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	BUY No	96¢	$5	13d
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 9?	BUY No	100¢	$2,070	14d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,066	15d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8?	BUY No	100¢	$2,061	15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,058	16d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 7?	BUY No	100¢	$2,055	16d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,050	17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 3?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 29?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	25d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 25?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	29d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 20?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	34d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 16?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	38d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 16?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	38d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 16?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	38d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 14?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	41d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.83 · official $4.83 (match) · 29 history records