Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2deb…2b13 sports 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,714 (-8%) realized −$5,134 · open +$420
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,533per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$923est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,920now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$14,395
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +12.5% +1.8% 60% 60% -0.9%
≤30d 36 -37.3% -43.3% 33% 31% -37.0%
≤90d 36 -37.3% -43.3% 33% 31% -37.0%
all 36 -37.3% -43.3% 33% 31% -37.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.3% 31% -37.0%
10% -48.7% 31% -43.0%
15% -53.6% 25% -48.5%
20% -58.2% 17% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$1,529) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -55% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$722 vs −$978 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$1,920
Realized−$5,134
Unrealized+$420
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$923
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage26d
Avg bet$1,533
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner TEAM VISION 72¢ 92¢ $1,500 $1,920 +$420 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $806 +$280 +35%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $727 −$500 -69%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $1,595 +$1,339 +84%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $1,535 −$1,519 -99%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $612 +$880 +144%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,122 −$1,111 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,523 +$1,603 +105%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,008 +$368 +36%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $674 −$666 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $3,723 −$1,063 -28%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,632 −$405 -25%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,517 +$862 +57%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $3,836 −$580 -15%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $4,227 −$898 -21%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $612 −$600 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $51 −$50 -97%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $3,437 −$555 -16%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,640 −$500 -30%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $612 −$161 -26%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $1,882 −$1,850 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,635 −$1,478 -90%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1,121 +$466 +42%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1,119 +$358 +32%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $507 −$500 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1,524 −$1,422 -93%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1,529 −$1,420 -93%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $1,518 −$1,336 -88%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $3,560 −$3,500 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $1,121 +$457 +41%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $2,026 +$1,508 +74%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $2,881 −$844 -29%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 30 $1,014 −$813 -80%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $716 −$703 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $150 +$11 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 75¢ $101 18m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 76¢ $101 19m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 76¢ $101 19m
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $1,086 21m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 71¢ $101 22m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 71¢ $101 22m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 71¢ $101 22m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 71¢ $101 22m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 71¢ $101 22m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 71¢ $101 22m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 71¢ $101 22m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 71¢ $101 22m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 71¢ $101 22m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 71¢ $101 22m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 71¢ $101 22m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 71¢ $101 22m
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 78¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 78¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 77¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 75¢ $201 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 69¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 69¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 69¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $472 3h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 63¢ $40 3h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 24¢ $102 3h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 38¢ $102 3h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 62¢ $54 3h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 40¢ $20 3h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 36¢ $102 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,919.70 · official $1,919.70 (match) · 164 history records