Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:12:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2df0…a625 weather 340 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$83 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate95%317W / 17L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$780now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$37
14 days+$54
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$56
other 0% −$40
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 5% -8.3%
≤30d 72 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 1% -8.8%
≤90d 334 -0.8% -10.2% 95% 4% -9.7%
all 334 -0.8% -10.2% 95% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 4% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$40 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$780
Realized−$83
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses317 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)334 / 340
History coverage88d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 334 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 16? No 98¢ 96¢ $170 $167 −$3 (-2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 16? No 98¢ 97¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $78 $78 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 15 $200 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 15 $200 +$3 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 13? Jun 14 $300 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun Jun 14 $168 +$5 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 14 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on June 12? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on June 11? Jun 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $200 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on June Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 10? Jun 11 $141 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on June 10? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on June Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 9? Jun 10 $209 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 10 $101 +$11 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 8? Jun 09 $300 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on June Jun 09 $36 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun Jun 09 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on June 7? Jun 08 $306 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 57°F or below on June Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 07 $200 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on June 5? Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on June Jun 06 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on June 4? Jun 05 $332 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 68°F or higher on June Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on June Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on June Jun 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 03 $103 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 51°F or below on June Jun 02 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 1? Jun 02 $126 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 1? Jun 02 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 1? Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on May 31? Jun 01 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on May Jun 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 31? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 30? May 31 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on May 30? May 31 $325 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 29? May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May May 30 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 82°F or higher on May 29? May 30 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 82°F or higher on May 28? May 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 28? May 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on May May 29 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $24 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $30 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $78 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $100 21h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $100 21h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $100 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $100 21h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $100 21h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $100 21h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $100 21h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun BUY No 97¢ $68 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun BUY No 97¢ $100 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $100 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $100 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $100 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $200 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $100 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $23 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $779.94 · official $779.94 (match) · 802 history records