Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:45:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2D 0x2df2…c6f5 other 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$75 (+3%) realized +$81 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate58%40W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$53
14 days+$47
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$2
sports 22% +$51
world 6% −$2
weather 2% −$4
tech 2% −$1
politics 1% $0
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.0% -8.6% 86% 71% +2.2%
≤30d 54 -13.5% -21.8% 59% 35% -6.9%
≤90d 69 -5.6% -14.6% 58% 30% -7.2%
all 69 -5.6% -14.6% 58% 30% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 30% -7.2%
10% -22.8% 16% -16.1%
15% -30.3% 12% -24.2%
20% -37.1% 6% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$81
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses40 / 29
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage170d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $203 $197 −$6 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $181 +$26 +15%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $21 −$21 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $31 +$7 +23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $152 +$36 +24%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $7 +$1 +8%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +20%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $37 +$7 +20%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $11 +$1 +12%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$1 +10%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $91 +$39 +42%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 −$1 -20%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 +$8 +7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $37 +$5 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $65 +$32 +50%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $60 +$4 +7%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $52 +$6 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $97 −$97 -100%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $6 +$1 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $19 +$2 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $7 +$1 +12%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 +$1 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3? Jun 09 $8 −$3 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $74 Week of May 25 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $124 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $64 +$29 +46%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 04 $6 +$4 +79%
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch Jun 03 $15 $0 -3%
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch Jun 03 $21 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $126 +$2 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8 −$2 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $36 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May May 31 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 30? May 30 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 30? May 30 $0 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $206 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 96¢ $207 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $181 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $21 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $38 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $31 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 83¢ $188 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $152 6d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 75¢ $8 6d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 69¢ $7 6d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? SELL No 71¢ $12 6d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $10 6d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 84¢ $10 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $44 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $12 7d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 93¢ $12 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 7d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 83¢ $11 7d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 97¢ $11 7d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 88¢ $10 7d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 77¢ $130 8d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $91 8d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 8d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 90¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 13¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 14¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 16¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 16¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.59 · official $196.59 (match) · 186 history records